From protector to onlooker: how France lost its influence in Lebanon
France has multiplied its diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the growing conflict in Lebanon between Hezbollah and Israel, but the influence it wields in its former protectorate has declined dramatically in recent years. RFI looks at how France lost its clout.
Just two days after Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was shot dead in Lebanon in an Israeli air strike, France's new Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot headed to Beirut.
"France stands alongside Lebanon during its most difficult moments," he said, exhorting Hezbollah and Israel to commit to a 21-day ceasefire plan laid out by France and the US.
Ten days earlier, President Emmanuel Macron had addressed Lebanese people directly in a video posted on social media.
"Lebanon is struck by grief and fear," he declared, flanked by French and Lebanese flags. Without mentioning Hezbollah, he said he was working on a diplomatic solution in the light of France’s values and "fraternal feelings" for Lebanon.
"Emmanuel Macron and Jean-Noel Barrot are first and foremost involved in a communications exercise," says Middle East specialist Fabrice Balanche.
Since the president lost power on the domestic front, he has to exist on the international scene. And Barrot, who is completely unknown to the public, is looking to make a name for himself.
The bottom line, Balanche notes, is that France has lost its political clout in Lebanon: "In 10 years French influence has collapsed."
An estimated 23,000 French citizens live in Lebanon and more than 300,000 Lebanese reside in France.
Under the 1916 Sykes-Picot accords that carved up the Middle East, the area of Lebanon and Syria was put under French control. Greater Lebanon was created in 1920 and remained a French protectorate until 1943.
That period left a huge impact on Lebanese culture, economy and politics. For decades France enjoyed close relations not only with the country's Christian community, but also Shia and Sunni Muslims.
Ties were particularly strong during the 1995-2007 presidency of Jacques Chirac – a close friend of Lebanon's then prime minister and Sunni Muslim billionaire Rafic Hariri.
At that time France weighed heavily within the EU.
”The Franco-German relationship was strong, EU funds were invested in Lebanon in line with French interests," Balanche notes. "There was a kind of agreement with Germany that Lebanon was the preserve of France."
Hariri's assassination in 2005 plunged Lebanon into its worst crisis since the 1975-1990 civil war.
But the real turning point came in 2015-2016 with the war in Syria, argues Balanche, author of an award-winning book on the Syria crisis. He describes France's policy as "a fiasco".
"We believed Bachar al-Assad would fall, we backed the rebels and the country fell into civil war," resulting in more than a million Syrian refugees heading to Europe. The majority ended up in Germany.
"Germany paid the price for this French fiasco, and from then on the Germans began taking real power within Europe," says Balanche.
Germany put a stop, he says, to France's policy of using European funds to favour its foreign policy, notably in Lebanon.
France "no longer has a say" there – the foreign powers that matter are now Saudi Arabia, Iran and the United States.
Balanche recalls how envoy David Schenker, then in charge of Near East affairs at the US State Department, told the Lebanese on a visit to Beirut: "'Don’t forget! It’s the Americans and the Saudis who sign the cheques.'"
Other experts, however, say France holds a different kind of sway.
French diplomacy prides itself on being able to speak to all sides, including Hezbollah. Middle East analyst Karim Bitar said this helps make France a possible broker in the current conflict.
Yet Balanche says it's not enough to talk to everyone – governments need to defend a clear line.
We can't tell the Israelis on Friday: ‘You have the right to defend yourselves, we're going to create an international anti-Hamas coalition modelled on the anti-ISIS coalition.’ And then tell the Arab countries: ‘What Israel is doing in Gaza is scandalous.’
If France weighed more in Lebanon during Chirac's presidency, it's partly because he had a clear, pro-Arab policy, Balanche argues.
French language in decline
It's hard to see how France can claw back influence in Lebanon. While there remains a certain nostalgia for "France the protector" that built modern-day Lebanon, the Lebanese are under no illusions.
"They saw that with the economic crisis in 2019, the explosion of the port, that France didn't have the means to protect the country, so there’s disappointment of course," says Balanche. "And for your average Shia Muslim, talk of France means next to nothing."
Balanche, who worked at the Institut Français in Beirut from 2003 to 2007, has also noticed a dramatic drop in the use of French.
If you went to bars where middle-class youth gathered, you’d hear Arabic or French. If you go there now you’ll hear Arabic and English – people under the age of 30 don’t speak French.
A lack of investment in France’s cultural institutions in Lebanon is partly responsible, with far fewer staff employed in French cultural cooperation programmes. Meanwhile those who are sent over are more likely to be interns than professors.
“It’s cheaper,” Balanche regrets. “All of that has played a role in the collapse of a French presence in Lebanon.”